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Principles of Forecasting

In its simplest expression business forecasting is the projection of current experience forward in time. For example, if sales have increased by 10 per cent each year for the past four years, our forecast of the expected sales increase next year is 10 per cent or more. However, this may be too simple a view, and may lead to error...

However, this may be too simple a view, and may lead to error. Past experience may be related to various factors which have influence on the result. These factors may change in different proportions and the forecast then

Becomes a matter of relating factors to results, estimation of the changes and determination of a compound forecast from these individual trends, At a further level of abstraction, these factors may themselves be influenced by external factors, such as the state of the economy, political climate, etc...

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