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My augmented estimation equation improves the in-sample predictability of expected changes in the base rate considerably. For example for the period after 1997 when the Bank of England became independent, the expectations hypothesis based estimation equation is able to explain about 50% of the variation in expected changes in the base rate within the next year, while adding real and nominal term structure variables increases the adjusted R-square to close to 90%...
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One possible explanation of this remarkable improvement is that after 1997 long-term inflation expectations are anchored by the level of the inflation target and as a result any significant change in long-term inflation expectation proxiesderived from the yield curves is viewed by market participant as a signal for anoffsettingmonetary policy move...
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