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| Topic: |
Business
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| Number of pages / Number of words: |
6 / 1658 |
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I used the historical data because the last years’ market returns were subject to large variations. Indeed between 07/03/00 and 07/02/01, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 19.49% whereas over the year before (between 07/05/1999 and 07/03/00) it had increased of 5.39%. This makes it hard to estimate the next market return, so I chose to use the geometric mean of the historical risk premium (1026-1999)...
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This makes it hard to estimate the next market return, so I chose to use the geometric mean of the historical risk premium (1026-1999).
According the Ibboston Associates Yearbook, 1999, the historical geometric mean of the risk premium between 1926 and 1999 is 5.90%. I used the geometric mean instead of the arithmetic for its accuracy...
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